Trump's kinder, gentler words may have been seen in some quarters in Delhi as the first step in a choreography that could stop the downward spiral in India-US relations. But in Washington, his Friday message was simply a restatement of facts: India is a strategic partner, but there are serious differences. In short, it's mistake to see a 'thaw' because India was not 'iced out' in the first place. The US has had issues with Europe on trade and Nato spending, but 'it doesn't mean we're not allies'.
In India's case, the 'background has changed' - purchase of Russian oil - and is a point of serious disagreement. Indian imports may not have to come down to zero, but they can't be 20% of all Russian oil exports. The other major problem is lack of a satisfactory trade deal after months of negotiations, which, incidentally, are 'ongoing'.
How Delhi moves forward on the two issues will determine progress. US officials stress that it's unwise to conflate the noise (read: Peter Navarro) with the substance of what Trump says. Navarro's fulminations shouldn't be seen as a reflection of White House thinking. His claim to fame is spending four months in jail for Trump, and that means he's tolerated.
The ball is mostly in Delhi's court. The negotiating team's ability to produce results in the middle of uncertainty and pressures of domestic politics will define success. To say nothing of the 'hesitations of history' that are back as overhang. Time is more an enemy than a friend under the current circumstances.
The 50% tariffs on India remain, as do threats of more sanctions (phase 2 and 3). Trump wants to ramp up pressure on Putin to end the Ukraine war. The Russian leader seems in no mood to oblige.
By Sunday, Trump was talking of imposing secondary sanctions on countries that do business with Russia. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent was dreaming of an EU-US coalition to execute the plan and further punish India to squeeze peace out of Putin. Bessent thinks if he can force the 'collapse' of the Russian economy, peace will prevail.
The ground remains rocky. There are no winners, despite BJP IT cell's penchant to go into overdrive and declare victory - India defeated the 'bully', etc. Fact remains that the downward spiral could have been avoided had those on the spot paid greater attention to how to play (with) Trump and family. Even now, selective takes, which emphasise one part of Trump's statements and ignore the other, are unhelpful.
Still, for Trump to say that the two countries have 'a special relationship' and that 'there's nothing to worry about' was significant. Modi's response - a tad overanxious - was quick lest Trump change his mind. 'Deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump's sentiments and positive assessment of our ties. India and the US have a very positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership.' Who drafted that?
Voices around Trump who believe the India relationship shouldn't be sacrificed on a whim may have finally reached him. Perhaps Marco Rubio, both secretary of state and NSA, asserted himself. Or was it Sergio Gor, the Trump family insider nominated to be ambassador to India?
Photos from Tianjin helped, as US experts uniformly declared that India was being 'pushed' into China's arms by Trump tariffs. That's not true - the re-engagement started last year. But the image of Putin, Modi and Xi in the same frame alarmed the US establishment.
The overall sentiment in Washington remains against India buying Russian oil, or at least not as much. An alignment on the issue is possible as before, but not through public pressure. Similarly on trade, can a deal be made sooner rather than later? Trump has rejected four previous drafts. Aside from the actual deal, the whole scene should be reimagined with a different cast of characters playing roles never before considered.
Other countries have managed. How did they come to a deal and escape punitive tariffs? What were the elements? How did they arrive at those huge numbers for investments in the US? Clearly, the numbers represent intent, not commitment.
If the India-US relationship stabilises, forward movement on other fronts such as tech cooperation would be a signal. It's important that the Yudh Abhyas army exercises are still taking place at Fort Wainwright, Alaska.
Meanwhile, the much-awaited US National Defense Strategy reportedly plans to shift focus away from China and prioritise the homeland and western hemisphere. If true, the new strategy by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby would represent not only a reversal of the current posture, but also a turnaround in his own thinking.
Prepare for more shock and awe.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com)
In India's case, the 'background has changed' - purchase of Russian oil - and is a point of serious disagreement. Indian imports may not have to come down to zero, but they can't be 20% of all Russian oil exports. The other major problem is lack of a satisfactory trade deal after months of negotiations, which, incidentally, are 'ongoing'.
How Delhi moves forward on the two issues will determine progress. US officials stress that it's unwise to conflate the noise (read: Peter Navarro) with the substance of what Trump says. Navarro's fulminations shouldn't be seen as a reflection of White House thinking. His claim to fame is spending four months in jail for Trump, and that means he's tolerated.
The ball is mostly in Delhi's court. The negotiating team's ability to produce results in the middle of uncertainty and pressures of domestic politics will define success. To say nothing of the 'hesitations of history' that are back as overhang. Time is more an enemy than a friend under the current circumstances.
The 50% tariffs on India remain, as do threats of more sanctions (phase 2 and 3). Trump wants to ramp up pressure on Putin to end the Ukraine war. The Russian leader seems in no mood to oblige.
By Sunday, Trump was talking of imposing secondary sanctions on countries that do business with Russia. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent was dreaming of an EU-US coalition to execute the plan and further punish India to squeeze peace out of Putin. Bessent thinks if he can force the 'collapse' of the Russian economy, peace will prevail.
The ground remains rocky. There are no winners, despite BJP IT cell's penchant to go into overdrive and declare victory - India defeated the 'bully', etc. Fact remains that the downward spiral could have been avoided had those on the spot paid greater attention to how to play (with) Trump and family. Even now, selective takes, which emphasise one part of Trump's statements and ignore the other, are unhelpful.
Still, for Trump to say that the two countries have 'a special relationship' and that 'there's nothing to worry about' was significant. Modi's response - a tad overanxious - was quick lest Trump change his mind. 'Deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump's sentiments and positive assessment of our ties. India and the US have a very positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership.' Who drafted that?
Voices around Trump who believe the India relationship shouldn't be sacrificed on a whim may have finally reached him. Perhaps Marco Rubio, both secretary of state and NSA, asserted himself. Or was it Sergio Gor, the Trump family insider nominated to be ambassador to India?
Photos from Tianjin helped, as US experts uniformly declared that India was being 'pushed' into China's arms by Trump tariffs. That's not true - the re-engagement started last year. But the image of Putin, Modi and Xi in the same frame alarmed the US establishment.
The overall sentiment in Washington remains against India buying Russian oil, or at least not as much. An alignment on the issue is possible as before, but not through public pressure. Similarly on trade, can a deal be made sooner rather than later? Trump has rejected four previous drafts. Aside from the actual deal, the whole scene should be reimagined with a different cast of characters playing roles never before considered.
Other countries have managed. How did they come to a deal and escape punitive tariffs? What were the elements? How did they arrive at those huge numbers for investments in the US? Clearly, the numbers represent intent, not commitment.
If the India-US relationship stabilises, forward movement on other fronts such as tech cooperation would be a signal. It's important that the Yudh Abhyas army exercises are still taking place at Fort Wainwright, Alaska.
Meanwhile, the much-awaited US National Defense Strategy reportedly plans to shift focus away from China and prioritise the homeland and western hemisphere. If true, the new strategy by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby would represent not only a reversal of the current posture, but also a turnaround in his own thinking.
Prepare for more shock and awe.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com)
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