The Third Eye: A cause for concern in the Middle East

New Delhi, July 1 (IANS) Although a triangular contest between Iran, Israel and the Arab states of the Gulf- principally Saudi Arabia and UAE- marked the scene in the Middle East, it is the military confrontation between Iran and Israel that is currently the cause of a crisis in the region.

The two Arab states have been traditional allies of the US and have even been persuaded by the latter to consider signing peace pacts with Israel, termed the Abraham Accords.

The US and Israel continue to identify themselves with each other completely, and the US President Donald Trump was upholding Israel's total opposition to the Iranian nuclear programme and insisting on Iran signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for any reconsideration of sanctions earlier imposed on it (Iran).

Iran had claimed that its nuclear programme was only for energy generation, but Israel never accepted the plea.

The JCPOA called for further monitoring and verification provisions, and granting of increased access to IAEA inspectors to information and sites.

President Trump decided to mount "high pressure" on a reluctant Iran to make it fall in line with the US.

Apparently encouraged by the US support, Israel attacked Iran on June 13.

Iran retaliated by launching an attack on Israel with hypersonic missiles, many of which could get through the latter's Iron Dome air defence.

On June 21, the US bombed three nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and claimed it had destroyed them. There was Israel-US intelligence coordination in the attack that was code-named 'Midnight Hammer'. Seven B2 stealth bombers were used for Fordow and Natanz, and 14 bunker-buster bombs were dropped on the nuclear facilities there - the one at Fordow was buried deep below a mountain on the outskirts of Tehran. At the same time, two dozen cruise missiles were fired at Isphahan from a submarine.

Responding to the US claim of having destroyed the nuclear plants, Iran acknowledged damage but contended that the sites had already been discarded and their equipment moved elsewhere.

President Trump warned Iran that "future attacks would be far deadlier if it did not sign the nuclear deal".

UN nuclear watchdog said there were no signs of nuclear contamination at the three sites after the attacks.

The Head of Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran announced that Iran had another Uranium enrichment site at a safe location.

While Iran did not seem to be giving up on its right to develop nuclear energy, Israel firmly believed that Tehran would use enriched Uranium to produce nuclear bombs. For the present, there is an undeclared ceasefire from both sides. What is perhaps a major cause of concern for the democratic world is that the Iran-Israel confrontation was not merely political or military, but was now a "faith-based" conflict as well.

Ayatollah Ali Khameini, the supreme leader of Iran, said early on during the escalating tension that it was a "clash between Islam and Zionism" and talked of the "ultimate triumph of Islam over the Zionist regime".

On June 6, he called upon the Muslim pilgrims going to Mecca to send a message to their governments and convince them of the need to "abandon and isolate Israel for its savagery in Gaza".

It may be mentioned that Shia fundamentalism despises the US as it is ideologically opposed to Capitalism- it glorifies "poverty" and "sacrifice".

Sunni Islamic radical groups carry the legacy of the 19th century Wahhabi Jehad that raged through Algeria, Arabia and India under the leadership of the Ulema-not the political rulars- against the 'Western encroachment on Muslim lands'.

The US is therefore the first enemy for Islamic radicals, and this became very clear during the "war on terror". This 'war of US-led coalition' was against the Taliban-al Qaeda combine in Afghanistan and against a competitive radical force called ISIS that emerged in the Iraq-Syria region. It is no surprise that Iran took a radicalised Hamas in its embrace, thus adding to the threat to Israel.

Lebanon-based Hezbollah- a Shia militant group - and the Houthis of Yemen also known as Ansar Allah representing a Shia Islamic Movement, are Iran's proxies, but it is the Iran-Hamas combine that was extremely significant for it transcended Shia-Sunni divide to make it a cause of Islam against the Jewish state, at a deep ideological level.

The motivation for this fight is very strong being rooted in Jehad which was at par with the five fundamental duties of Islam and which called upon a faithful Muslim to even sacrifice his life in a situation of "Islam being in danger" or for the "protection of the Muslim community".

What is called Islamic Terror that President Trump has denounced in no uncertain terms, is, in the view of fundamentalists, a religious duty to be fulfilled, providing its protagonists with an instrument for effective indoctrination in the era of social media.

Iran and Israel today face an unprecedented level of mutual animosity. The faith-based conflicts do not easily end, and the US-Israel side should be prepared to face a war of attrition. The total opposition to the US has caused a natural shift of Iran geopolitically towards the China-Russia camp, and the concern here is that if this divide becomes more deep-seated, it might hasten the return of the Cold War.

Meanwhile, the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) in a joint statement following a meeting of Foreign Ministers of the 57-member block at Istanbul on June 22, condemned the aggression of Israel and laid emphasis on the role of UN Security Council in immediately addressing the grave threat to international peace and security caused by Israel. The release notably did not make a mention of the US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, but the General Secretariat of OIC, in a separate statement, did express "deep concern" over the overnight US strikes.

The Istanbul conference decided to form a Ministerial Contact Group to engage with international and regional actors to stop aggression against Iran.

A leading light of OIC, Saudi Arabia, does not like the hegemony of either Iran or Israel in the Middle East and is particularly sensitive to radical Islamist groups who despise the Saudi regime for being a "lackey" of the US. OIC would favour a pact between the US and Iran.

India has maintained harmonious relations with the three lead players in the Middle East-Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel- and it should follow a three-fold policy approach based on zero tolerance towards faith-based terror, democratisation of the regimes there to grant minority rights and peace relations amongst all nations in the region. India would certainly not like the Iran-Israel confrontation to escalate into a global conflict.

While Israel's instinct of survival against a hostile Muslim world around it can be understood, its own military and technological power, besides the backing it enjoyed from the democratic world in general and the US in particular, should make it amenable to peace accords with its neighbours. It must stop indiscriminate killing of Palestinian civilians, including women and children, in Gaza while countering Hamas-it had every right to chase Hamas -and cooperate with the democratic world in finding a long-term solution to the Palestine issue.

In a war of attrition with Iran, Israel may not emerge as a sure winner for reasons mentioned earlier, and the best way out for global peace would be for major powers to compel de-escalation of military confrontations and push the Middle East towards peaceful coexistence.

(The writer is a former Director Intelligence Bureau)

--IANS

pathak/svn