India is set to register the fastest oil demand growth among major global economies in 2025 and 2026, outpacing China by more than double, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).
Driven by rising energy needs in the world’s fastest-growing major economy, India’s oil demand is projected to climb from 5.55 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 5.74 million bpd in 2025, marking a 3.39% increase. This upward trend is expected to continue in 2026, reaching 5.99 million bpd — a 4.28% rise year-on-year, reported news agency PTI.
By contrast, China’s oil demand is forecast to grow by just 1.5% in 2025 and 1.25% in 2026, highlighting India's accelerating role in global oil consumption trends.
Despite this, the United States will remain the world’s top oil consumer, with a projected demand of 20.5 million bpd in 2025, followed by China at 16.90 million bpd and 17.12 million bpd in 2026. India will continue to rank third globally.
The US is expected to see marginal growth of 0.09% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026.
Global oil demand overall is forecast to increase by 1.3 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026, in line with previous Opec projections.
"Looking ahead, India's economy continued to expand at the beginning of the year. The current momentum of robust economic growth is expected to continue, driven by ongoing consumer spending, investment and government support for key sectors," Opec said.
While recently announced US tariffs could have a dampening effect on India’s GDP growth, Opec noted that fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are expected to offset some of that impact.
"Accordingly, the outlook for the near term provides further positive signals for steady oil demand in India. Diesel is projected to continue to be the main driver of demand growth," the report said.
India’s ongoing road infrastructure expansion is boosting bitumen demand, and strong transport fuel consumption, along with rising petrochemical feedstock requirements, is expected to support continued growth in oil product demand.
"Additionally, robust growth in transport fuels, with strong expectations for manufacturing and growth in petrochemical feedstock requirements, is expected to support overall oil demand growth," it said. "Overall, in 2025, oil product demand in India is expected to grow by 188,000 bpd, year-on-year, to average 5.7 million bpd."
By 2026, oil demand in India is projected to rise by 246,000 bpd to an average of 6.0 million bpd, supported by resilient economic activity and government backing of key sectors.
"India's economy is expected to continue expanding amid strong manufacturing and service sector activities, supported by a continuation of current government support in key sectors amid inflation easing," Opec added.
India currently imports more than 85% of its crude oil requirements, refining it into fuels like petrol and diesel.
OPEC noted that India’s crude imports hit a record high of 5.4 million bpd in March, representing a month-on-month increase of over 5%. Product imports also rose 2% due to increased inflows of LPG, while product exports declined by 3%, mainly due to reduced gasoline and naphtha exports, partially offset by higher diesel and fuel oil outflows.
"In terms of crude imports by source, Kpler data shows Russia had a 36 per cent share of India's total crude imports in March, up from 31 per cent in the previous month. Iraq was second with 17 per cent, followed by Saudi Arabia with 11 per cent," the report stated.
Driven by rising energy needs in the world’s fastest-growing major economy, India’s oil demand is projected to climb from 5.55 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 5.74 million bpd in 2025, marking a 3.39% increase. This upward trend is expected to continue in 2026, reaching 5.99 million bpd — a 4.28% rise year-on-year, reported news agency PTI.
By contrast, China’s oil demand is forecast to grow by just 1.5% in 2025 and 1.25% in 2026, highlighting India's accelerating role in global oil consumption trends.
Despite this, the United States will remain the world’s top oil consumer, with a projected demand of 20.5 million bpd in 2025, followed by China at 16.90 million bpd and 17.12 million bpd in 2026. India will continue to rank third globally.
The US is expected to see marginal growth of 0.09% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026.
Global oil demand overall is forecast to increase by 1.3 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026, in line with previous Opec projections.
"Looking ahead, India's economy continued to expand at the beginning of the year. The current momentum of robust economic growth is expected to continue, driven by ongoing consumer spending, investment and government support for key sectors," Opec said.
While recently announced US tariffs could have a dampening effect on India’s GDP growth, Opec noted that fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are expected to offset some of that impact.
"Accordingly, the outlook for the near term provides further positive signals for steady oil demand in India. Diesel is projected to continue to be the main driver of demand growth," the report said.
India’s ongoing road infrastructure expansion is boosting bitumen demand, and strong transport fuel consumption, along with rising petrochemical feedstock requirements, is expected to support continued growth in oil product demand.
"Additionally, robust growth in transport fuels, with strong expectations for manufacturing and growth in petrochemical feedstock requirements, is expected to support overall oil demand growth," it said. "Overall, in 2025, oil product demand in India is expected to grow by 188,000 bpd, year-on-year, to average 5.7 million bpd."
By 2026, oil demand in India is projected to rise by 246,000 bpd to an average of 6.0 million bpd, supported by resilient economic activity and government backing of key sectors.
"India's economy is expected to continue expanding amid strong manufacturing and service sector activities, supported by a continuation of current government support in key sectors amid inflation easing," Opec added.
India currently imports more than 85% of its crude oil requirements, refining it into fuels like petrol and diesel.
OPEC noted that India’s crude imports hit a record high of 5.4 million bpd in March, representing a month-on-month increase of over 5%. Product imports also rose 2% due to increased inflows of LPG, while product exports declined by 3%, mainly due to reduced gasoline and naphtha exports, partially offset by higher diesel and fuel oil outflows.
"In terms of crude imports by source, Kpler data shows Russia had a 36 per cent share of India's total crude imports in March, up from 31 per cent in the previous month. Iraq was second with 17 per cent, followed by Saudi Arabia with 11 per cent," the report stated.
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