Stock market recommendations : According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, the top stock picks for the week (starting May 12, 2025) are Indian Oil Corporation Ltd and M&M . Let’s take a look:
IOCL
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd’s 4QFY25 EBITDA was a 110% beat on est., driven by higher-than-estimated GRM (USD8/bbl) as well as marketing margins (INR5.9/lit). With tax rate coming in below est., resultant PAT stood 5x above est. at INR72.6b. While the OMC rally may be nearing its end, near-term catalysts remain. 1Q earnings may benefit from lower LPG under-recoveries after recent ₹50/cylinder price hike, softer propane prices, higher Russian crude intake aiding GRMs, and steady marketing earnings. It is well-positioned with major refinery expansions (~17.7mmtpa) scheduled for 4QFY6–1HFY27 & plans to add 3,000–4,000 new retail outlets in FY26 to its 40,000+ network. The recent drop in crude prices below $60/bbl—the lowest since Feb’21—also provides a favourable backdrop for margins.
M&M
M&M reported a better-than-expected performance in Q4, led by a strong margin beat in the FES segment (at 19.4% vs 17.3% est.). Revenue grew 24.5% YoY, and EBITDA margin expanded 180bp YoY to 14.9%, driven by improved ASPs across both the Auto and FES segments. Management remains confident of outperforming the UV industry in FY26, driven by new launches like Thar Roxx, XUV 3XO, and recent EVs. It plans to boost UV capacity to 69k/85K units in FY26/FY27, with a greenfield project for future requirements beyond FY28. We believe MM is well-placed to outperform across its core business, driven by healthy recovery in rural areas and new product launches across both UV and tractor segments. We estimate MM to post CAGR of 13%/13%/18% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25–27E.
Disclaimer: The opinions, analyses and recommendations expressed herein are those of brokerage and do not reflect the views of The Times of India. Always consult with a qualified investment advisor or financial planner before making any investment decisions.
IOCL
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd’s 4QFY25 EBITDA was a 110% beat on est., driven by higher-than-estimated GRM (USD8/bbl) as well as marketing margins (INR5.9/lit). With tax rate coming in below est., resultant PAT stood 5x above est. at INR72.6b. While the OMC rally may be nearing its end, near-term catalysts remain. 1Q earnings may benefit from lower LPG under-recoveries after recent ₹50/cylinder price hike, softer propane prices, higher Russian crude intake aiding GRMs, and steady marketing earnings. It is well-positioned with major refinery expansions (~17.7mmtpa) scheduled for 4QFY6–1HFY27 & plans to add 3,000–4,000 new retail outlets in FY26 to its 40,000+ network. The recent drop in crude prices below $60/bbl—the lowest since Feb’21—also provides a favourable backdrop for margins.
M&M
M&M reported a better-than-expected performance in Q4, led by a strong margin beat in the FES segment (at 19.4% vs 17.3% est.). Revenue grew 24.5% YoY, and EBITDA margin expanded 180bp YoY to 14.9%, driven by improved ASPs across both the Auto and FES segments. Management remains confident of outperforming the UV industry in FY26, driven by new launches like Thar Roxx, XUV 3XO, and recent EVs. It plans to boost UV capacity to 69k/85K units in FY26/FY27, with a greenfield project for future requirements beyond FY28. We believe MM is well-placed to outperform across its core business, driven by healthy recovery in rural areas and new product launches across both UV and tractor segments. We estimate MM to post CAGR of 13%/13%/18% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25–27E.
Disclaimer: The opinions, analyses and recommendations expressed herein are those of brokerage and do not reflect the views of The Times of India. Always consult with a qualified investment advisor or financial planner before making any investment decisions.
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